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Potential != Reality

I think technologists like myself sometimes get confused between something that is potential, versus something that is real.

Small (well not small...) example:

With this personal blog I have the *potential* of reaching anyone - across the entire world - with an Internet connection.

That's amazing when you think about it for more than a split second.

It's easy to get caught up on that empowering potential and miss the hard realities that define it.

- Karl on Wednesday, May 9, 2007

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Comments

Every lottery ticket *can* win.

Virtually none of them *will* win.

Blog-evangelists deliberately sell people the dream of the former, and deny the reality of the latter.

Posted by: Seth Finkelstein at May 12, 2007 12:08 PM

I get your point about much blog evangelism to be sure.

But about that word - 'win'...

I'm not rich from my blog. However I met you through it (not in person, but I hope someday), and my life is indeed, richer for it.

An an earlier channel I ran on the Kosovo war led to me getting read by some folks in Russia.

And I regularly bump into folks, in person, I've met through blogging.

I yearn for a nuanced view to take hold.

But we humans don't do nuance too well do we? And we technologists (developers, sys admins, etc), really have a hard time with it. Things either work - or don't. Are on. Or off. One. Or zero.

Posted by: Karl at May 13, 2007 11:21 PM

It's not about "nuance", but bait-and-switch.

To continue the lottery analogy, that's like saying, "I didn't win the jackpot - but I won a few dollars. Isn't that winning, of a sort?"

No. Not in the sense conjured up by "reaching anyone - across the entire world".

Playing the lottery is a poor way to make money, because for almost everyone, the amount of money they spend will far exceed the amount of money they receive.

Blogs are similarly a very poor way of gaining the sort of audience under discussion, since they deflect a lot of energy into very unproductive areas. Note what this DOES NOT say - not that it's impossible for anything to return, but it's like spending $100 in lottery tickets to win $10 in prizes. That's a bad deal which is why so much is devoting to not having people examine it.

Posted by: Seth Finkelstein at May 14, 2007 11:46 PM

"Blogs are similarly a very poor way of gaining the sort of audience under discussion, since they deflect a lot of energy into very unproductive areas. Note what this DOES NOT say - not that it's impossible for anything to return, but it's like spending $100 in lottery tickets to win $10 in prize"

I have to return to my comment - it counts upon what your goal is.

I've gotten a great return on investment from my blog. If I was seeking fame and fortune, I might think otherwise, but I'm not.

I'm seeking my own definition of success.

There's a huge difference between 'reaching anyone' and 'reaching everyone'. But that kinda gets glossed over all too often as well.

I tend to think it is over enthusiasm and a bug in thinking that leads to declarations of utopianism and the ignoring of realities - not deliberate bait and switch (well most of the time... some folks are just trying to sell something).

But it leads to the same view, a view we both agree is flawed. We simply feel the motivations behind promoting that view are different, I think.

Posted by: Karl at May 17, 2007 6:58 AM

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